The Seductiveness of Models.

Pointman's

When it comes to Global Warming (GW), great emphasis is put on what the computer models predict will happen, so let’s get some idea of what exactly a model is. We’ll do a thought experiment. This is a complex area but no maths, I promise, and I’ll pick a really really simple problem.

Imagine we’re going to build a model of the game of Snooker (or Pool) and we’ll keep it even simpler by only considering the cue ball which is hit towards one object ball. A two ball problem. We want to be able to predict where both balls will come to rest after the impact. The physics of the situation are well understood. If the cue ball hits the object ball in the centre then the object ball will roll straight on. If the cue ball hits the object ball to the left of centre, then the object…

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