Serenity Faces Ice Aug.30

Science Matters

Click on image to enlarge.

h/t to angech for asking an interesting question:  What are the chances of an early refreezing in the Northwest Passage?  It provoked me to look more into the recent history of ice extents in the CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago).

The image above shows the years in the last decade closest to 2017 in terms of ice present in the CAA.  Only 2014 had more ice in that region than this year: 513k km2 compared to 464k km2 at day 240.  It appears that CAA annual minimum typically occurs at day 260, the same as the overall NH minimum.  The image above also shows that 2009 with 388k km2 provides the closest analog to this year for the amount of ice in McClintock Bay just in front of Serenity. The image below gives the progression in 2009 from day 244 to 270.

As of 10:30 EST…

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